New Projections: US Room Rates Forecast Lowered by Smith Travel

The Smith Travel Research has released a finding the hotel revenue management industry has long been waiting for: its room rate forecast for the later part of 2009 and 2010. As the title implies, Smith Travel has significantly lowered its room rate forecast in the United States. This will definitely affect the hotels’ bottom line and their succeeding yield management strategies. As if that’s not enough bad news, the research agency also expects moderate declines persist through 2010.

Currently, it is projecting that the average daily rate will lower to 9.7 percent in 2009 and the revenue per available room will lower by 17.1 percent from last year. Just last April, the agency had projected RevPAR decline of 9.8 percent as well as a rate decline of 3.6 percent. Occupancy will also decline by 8.4 percent and will now amount to 55.4 percent, just slightly down from its earlier projection last April (56.5 percent).For 2010, the same declines in all three metrics are expected to continue. Smith Travel projects that the room rate will drop 3.4 percent, the occupancy by .3 percent and RevPAR by around 3.7 percent.

According to Mark, Lomanno, Smith Travel’s president the key to the hospitality industry’s recovery is rebound in group travel. Group business is an important segment that every hotel revenue manager should look into. It will have to return to 90 to 95 percent of its levels before the economic crisis. Reaching this figure will be very beneficial to hotel revenue management strategy because of transient demand. In addition, it will provide hoteliers with price leverage.

Overall, the hospitality industry is not going to recover anytime soon. And it will take a lot longer to reach the 2006-2007 levels. Even the demand at the first part of 2008 may be difficult to achieve. As Lomanno further added, “on an inflation-adjusted basis, it’s probably going to be longer than six years before the rates get back to 2007 levels.”