Hotel Industry Expectations for the Second Half of 2009

According to the PKF Hospitality Research, RevPAR which is an important indicator of the hotel industry’s health, will bottom out in the third quarter of 2009. After months of decline, it is expected that the industry will finally rebound. This news is bound to give hotel revenue managers around the world a sense of relief. The escalating trend of declining hotel revenue began in the third quarter of 2008 so it really does come full cycle if this trend reverses itself in a one-year timeframe.

The President of PKF Hospitality Research Mark Woodworth said that while their finding is welcome news, 2009 will still post the “weakest year on record for the domestic lodging industry”. In addition, revenue per available room for 2010 will still be disappointing even if it is not as bad as this year. Taking into consideration the employment level and the demand for lodging, it becomes clear that RevPAR can decline by 17.5% overall for 2009. In 2010, decline in RevPAR will not be as bad but it is still at 3.5%.

These factors point to the conclusion that effective yield management should still be practiced by the revenue management team. Also, the hotel revenue management strategies such as increasing online presence, using hotel software, and training the service staff should be continued and further strengthened to give hotels a competitive edge.

Mr. Woodworth further added that “If you are wondering when we’ll start to see actual growth in RevPAR, then you’ll have to wait until 2011” though the “operating environment is going to get a little less painful”. The decline for lodgings in the United States peaked during the first quarter of 2009 at 8 percent. According to the Hotel Horizons, demand will continue to regress but at a diminishing rate.

For the remainder of 2009, the projected quarterly decline is 4.7 percent on the average. Overall, hotel revenue will decrease by 16 percent this year because of the decline in RevPAR. Beyond the year 2009, there will be an average annual increase of 3.2 percent in the next four years according to the same study.